(October 5, 2015 MUSKOKA) Last year on October 5, Muskoka News Watch was cautioning readers about high water flows due to large amounts of rainfall. This year, water levels appear a bit down — on Lake Muskoka at least.
What’s going on, asked some MNW readers? We turned to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) for an answer. Here it is, in brief:
Every year the annual fall drawdown begins to prepare for traditionally wetter conditions from October through December. Fall drawdown, say Ministry officials, is done to provide optimum conditions for lake trout spawning and egg survival, and continued dry weather through September has put the Ministry ahead of its typical drawdown target for Lake Muskoka. Ministry officials say they expect water levels on Lake Muskoka to remain close to where they are now through to mid-October. They have also been operating the Bala dam in a way to decrease flows out of Lake Muskoka.
Below is the full answer from the Ministry provided on October 1 on what we can expect for our lakes and the impact of dryer weather through September on water levels.
The operating range on Lake Muskoka for this time of year begins to trend downward as part of the annual fall drawdown. The drawdown is required to prepare for the traditionally wetter conditions in October, November and December. In addition, fall drawdown is scheduled to provide optimum conditions for lake trout spawning and egg survival. Lake of Bays, Rosseau/Joseph, Huntsville, Mary, Tasso, Camp and Kawagama have similar draw down schedules.
Current (October 1) Lake Muskoka water levels are 225.18 in Bala and 225.24 in Beaumaris. The levels on September 20, 2015 were 225.28 (Bala) and 225.35 (Beaumaris); and on September 28, 2015 the levels were 225.18 (Bala) and 225.24 (Beaumaris) – with the bottom of the operating range for this date being 225.25 (Beaumaris).
Unlike the last two autumns, we have received much drier weather this year. For the month of September our Bracebridge office recorded 53.4 mm of rain as compared to 123.8 mm received in September 2014. On the positive side, this has allowed us to more closely achieve our target draw down for most lakes whereas fall rains in 2013 and 2014 kept water levels across the watershed above the target through the fall. However, continued dry weather also means that we are slightly ahead of our drawdown target for this time of year on Lake Muskoka. In response we have operated the South Bala dam on September 28th and again October 1 to decrease flows from Lake Muskoka.
For reference, look at the copy of the Lake Muskoka Water Level Chart for 2015 including the data for the previous two years. 
Water levels on Lake Muskoka are expected to remain close to what they currently are through to the middle of October. Water levels generally begin to rise on their own through November due to higher precipitation. You can see from the 2013 and 2014 observations that water levels in previous years began to build through October, which was the result of wet weather.
We then begin a larger winter drawdown beginning in early December through to late March in preparation for the spring freshet (which typically occurs in early April).
Featured photo shows an extra foot or so of beach showing at Sunset Beach Park, Torrance, Lake Muskoka. Photo by Norah Fountain October 5, 2015.
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